Fighting bias when building new products

For evolutionary reasons we reason in terms of what is plausible instead of what is probable. So even though “90% of startups fail” people still try. In case you are unfamiliar, let me try to explain plausibility with an example:

Marty is an outgoing guy. Everybody loves him and he’s the life of the party. Surprisingly, his day job is very secluded. He only ever works with a few people since he is an engineer. The projects are of extreme complexity and require a ton of individual work.

Which is more probable?

  • A. Marty is a nuclear engineer.
  • B. Marty is a nuclear engineer who loves socializing.

Flip to page 2 for the answer.

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